football outsiders playoff odds

Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. Michigan should make it more competitive than a 34-11 loss in their semifinals meeting last New Year's Eve. Aaron Schatz, Vince Verhei, and Bryan Knowles are here to share some of the most surprising, mind-boggling, and outright embarrassing statistics through Week 13 of the 2022 NFL regular season. (Nevertheless, the playoff odds report still gives Philadelphia a 75% chance to win.). They should be fine against the Vikings this week, though. Stroud has to learn to read a good defense quickly. The company is planning a massive billion-dollar renovation of Station Casinos has acquired a 67-acre land at Losee Road with plans to build a new casino resort. Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. (Take out their defense from that game, and the 49ers drop slightly from seventh to eighth.) The Bulldogs and Buckeyes are traditional powers that spent the majority of the season in the top four, and they have two of the best rosters in the country. We have the latest College Football Playoff odds and best CFP predictions. Rather than the offensive incompetence from the Jets that it certainly felt like when watching the game? J.J. McCarthy has a far better arm that he gets credit for. This will be the first time ever in College Football Playoff history that Clemson and Alabama are both left out of the playoffs. NCAA Conference Championship - The big news we've expected for a while is now official, as college football's FBS level is going to a 12-team playoff beginning with the 2024 season. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews), Reaching the Conference Championship Game. Football Outsiders ranks Miami at No. NE's D, though, seems tuned to take on pocket passers, not mobile guys. 11 Utah gets it done vs. No. The Chargers' schedule is even more fun when you look at the offenses they face. Our friends at DraftKings have the Seahawks at 12th most likely to win, which seems to be the current. Filtering by Week 11 LAR WRs yielded no results. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Per Football Outsiders, Pittsburgh has just a 1% chance of claiming a division title and a 6.1% shot at making the playoffs. Does not account for traded picks. pic.twitter.com/O0hrpCxIDx. This is not a suggestion to pick up Zach Wilson in fantasy football, but you will notice he's got a huge gap between his passing DYAR and YAR on our passing stats page. The Patriots moved up to first in defense and overall improved by nearly five percentage points of DVOA, although that only means one place in the rankings from 12th to 11th. Not all possible Super Bowls are listed. Football Outsiders (FO) have just released their latest playoff odds for each NFL team. For Weeks 12-17, the average pass defense faced by the Chargers allows 14.3% DVOA. The 12 teams each year will include six conference champions -- that means at least one Group of 5 team gets in -- and then the next six at-large teams. The college football regular season is in the books and we are on to the conference championships. This is the Football Outsiders Top 16 through 11 weeks of 2022, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average (explained further here ). In other words, the oddsmakers at Bovada did not have much faith in USC beating Utah. Use promo code, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Eagles, Giants Fight for Playoffs, Khalil Mack Key to Chargers' Chances Against Dolphins, Jason Kelce's All-Time Block Leads Eagles Over Titans. I am sure this considered already, but how much is the Jet's own ineptidude considered in that ranking of pass defense? They should have an answer for the Horned Frogs from both angles through the air and ground. The following table shares the Fremeau Efficiency Index rankings . Vikings dominating the fluky 8-2 teams - I knew this seemed so familiar. We have the best defenses and offensive lines in college football if this is the matchup. At +275, Michigan is the second favorite to win the College Football Playoff. 1 Georgia will look to defend its national championship against No. Can we get a historical list of where the worst 8-2 teams ranked by DVOA? There are trends becoming more obvious with every week, and every week presents new bargains for us to acquire in our leagues to fortify our lineups ready for that big push. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the mean DAVE ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. And a good thing it is for NE, too, as their offense continues to struggle with the impenetrable barrier that is the opponent's 30-yard line. That produces playoff odds and Super Bowl . There are not too many differences between Georgia and Michigan, but the Bulldogs do everything just a bit better than the Wolverines. Lets get into the College Football Playoff odds and our College Football Playoff predictions at TheSportsGeek. However, who else should be the No. 28 schedule the rest of the way, much easier. Let's start with the obvious big wins. #Seahawks +17.7% #TakeFlight +15.8% #GoBucs +11.0% #RuleTheJungle +7.5% #GoPackGo -16.4% #RamsHouse -9.1% #RaiderNation -8.3% #ForTheShoe -5.2% https://footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/playoff-odds" FO Playoff Odds now updated. Alabama would have been in under the 12-team system. Their backs are against the wall. Another big change belongs to the Minnesota Vikings. Can TCU get this done and pull off a big upset? TCU does not have a defense that competes with the other three teams. Did DVOA see the Patriots' performance as a massive defensive tour de force? I think this team has a floor of 2-4 to finish the season and a ceiling of 6-0. It's possible that the Jets just had a bad game and only scored 3 points (and two yards of net offense in the second half) despite averaging 20 points a game. Georgia beat Michigan and then Alabama in the 2021-22 CFP Championship last year. The Cardinals drop from 29th to 31st. 2 Michigan and No. What If Justin Herbert Isn't All That Great? They also had what seems like a very poor draft. College Football Week Bowl Game Odds, Opening Lines Friday, December 16, 2022 HomeTown Lenders Bahamas Bowl UAB vs Miami University Fiu First Guess: UAB -10.5 Actual Line: UAB -11.5 Duluth Trading Cure Bowl Troy vs UTSA Fiu First Guess: UTSA -2.5 Actual Line: Troy -2.5 Saturday, December 17, 2022 Wasabi Fenway Bowl Louisville vs Cincinnati The Pats spied him in the second and he went nowhere. Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 50,000 simulations. Or this site doesnt partake in the annual "the Cowboys are this year's sleeper team" articles and "the cowboys might have turned it around" articles whenever they win a game. DraftKings was reporting 55% of bets on the Over but 51% of the handle on the Under for . They can look better than they are. Football Outsiders (@fboutsiders) November 7, 2022 The NFL is a truly ridiculous league. Week 13 Staff Picks: Is Chris Olave Best Bet for OROY? So the Chargers go from playing a schedule that's been very easy for their offense and hard for their defense to a schedule that will be very easy for their passing game and defense but hard for their running game. NFC playoff clinching and elimination scenarios for Week 14 December football brings division and playoff-clinching scenarios for some teams and elimination scenarios for others. Welcome to the Schatz & Tanier show for NFL Week 14! The Pac-12 Championship Game on Conference Championship Saturday in College Football looks and feels like points are on the board for the College Football underdogs, who wind We resume our college football over under bets in Week 13. I bought into the LaFleur scheme enough that I thought something like that "hot receiver rotation" could happen, and that this year's schedule was soft enough that they would still be in the 11-13 win range. 20th in D and 29th on ST passes the smell test because that's about the usual every year, no matter what. 4 team in the College Football Playoff? A reminder that all our free stats pages, including DVOA and player position stats, require registration to view. Football Outsiders playoff odds, snap counts, and the FO+ database are now all updated through Week 11. They pulled away for a 43-22 win on the legs of Donovan Edwards. They. They also ran more plays, 59 to 49, meaning that in total they outgained the Jets by nearly 200 yards. San Francisco is currently 11th on offense and seventh on defense. We're trying something new this week, with staff picks from the FO writers. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. It's straight forward because they are facing the second place Detroit Lions who sit five games . While the shape of the playoff race has been clear for some time, we still don't actually know any single team will actually be playing football in late January; historic collapses are still possible, if not exactly probable. Got to love FO (not being sarcastic). Why would writers being 49ers fans matter? For our look at remaining defensive schedules, I took out Week 18 because I know that a lot of readers will be curious about the fantasy football implications here. Blake Corum is not playing, but Edwards should run the distance. The New York Times gives the Bills an 80% chance to win the . Will Georgia's Balanced Attack Win Another Championship? They're 25th in pass DVOA since Week 4, below such dominant aerial attacks as Chicago and Tennessee. Jacobs' props are 89.5 rushing yards and 20.5 receiving yards, while Adams . . In reply to It's possible that the Jets by davelew. As such, they have been given long playoff odds by Bookmaker.EU. What can we expect from Stroud against Georgia? The issues in the past where only Adams could get himself open and the rest of the pass catchers needed scheme to be open is still true for the most part. Three games this week had a single-game DVOA over 60%, but one of them will not be obvious. With 7 games remaining, can they hold off GB and catch MIN for the NFC North title? They do this every week, and they arrive at the projections by running the season 10,000 times. This week's match up against the Bills is going to be tough, but after that they have Jacksonville, the Jets and Carolina, as well as one game remaining with each of their divisional opponents. Recent and Trending topics from Football Outsiders. This is the Football Outsiders Top 16 through 13 weeks of 2022, . As already mentioned this does show up in DVOA. Until then, the Vikings deserve to be lampooned as the ultimate paper tiger, In reply to It would be so funny if they by riri. TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion. Click here for the full table. Aaron and Mike are joined by Connor Rogers from SNY.tv & NBC Sports to go in-depth on the New York Jets and their Week 14 matchup with the Buffalo Bills. This leaves Marvin Harrison Jr. alone as the only receiver that can beat the Georgia defense. The Cincinnati Bengals have by far the hardest remaining schedule, followed by the Bears and Jaguars. FiveThirtyEight decided after Week 13 that Minnesota was the eighth-best team in football with the second most-likely odds to reach the playoffs. Cory Kinnan. The Lakers went 8-2 SU before losing their last two Hard Rock International unveiled the new renderings for the redesign of The Mirage. This is not a paywall*! Your email address will not be published. The 2022-23 College Football Playoff picture is complete after a thrilling weekend of conference championship football. Stetson Bennett should have his usual steady performance. Mayfield rallied the Fertitta Entertainment has closed its acquisition of Wildwood Casino in Cripple Creek, Colorado. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV) or winning a wild card (WC). Log in Projected Point Difference noted with Green/Yellow/Red About these numbers: Each week, from now until the end of the regular season, we'll be taking a look at the projected playoff field based on the Football Outsiders playoff odds simulation that . NFL Week 14 - Welcome to the NFL Week 14 Football Outsiders Data Show! GB is 17th in pass VOA, and 13 in rush VOA. In reply to "The New York Jets have by wooten1283. Georgia should advance for their second straight appearance in the National Championship. But some of those big wins weren't quite so big on the scoreboard. As for this division, the Football Outsiders playoff odds simulation actually has Seattle as a small favorite to win the NFC West right now, so I'm definitely not taking the 49ers at -220. Clemson vs North Carolina College Football Betting Picks and Odds. Get pressure on Stroud and he develops happy feet in the pocket. It wasn't mentioned in the quick-reads write up, but I'd suspect a lot of Mac's DYAR came from opponent adjustments against the #5 pass DVOA Jets (-10.8%). Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. Here are the Packers' playoff odds from various sites: FiveThirtyEight: 6 percent Football Outsiders: 8.6 percent New York Times: 11 percent ESPN FPI: 5.0 percent Playoff Status: 3.0. TCU isn't getting any respect. That's a sign of a battle-tested and complete team that deserves to be recognized as a worthy foe, not just a cute little story. Get FO+ Already a subscriber? I don't remember Dallas matering to 49ers in the last two decades. San Francisco gets 81.9% DVOA for its 38-10 Monday night dismantling of the Arizona Cardinals. 1 Georgia (-7) vs. No. Updated Football Outsiders playoff odds! While we give the Horned Frogs a better chance than +1600 of winning the National Championship, this is not a good matchup for them. Here are the early odds for the national semifinals courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. It would be so funny if they inverted their start: losing games but winning by DVOA, gradually improving their DVOA as the losses pile up until they're like 14th with a 9-8 record. If they do end up at #5, the Cowboys would be likely facing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers unless they crumble and lose the division. In reply to Detroit has climbed into the by Lost Ti-Cats Fan. Are there any others? The playoff odds report plays out the season 50,000 times. Learn how your comment data is processed. On the other hand, the Commanders . They are coming off a win in the underdog role over the Alabama Crimson Tide last year. 2022 NFL PLAYOFF ODDS | Football Outsiders NFL Playoff Odds www.footballoutsiders.com Last edited: Nov 16, 2020 9 Nightshade and 6 others Nov 16, 2020 #2 Saint Spud Hall-of-Famer Joined Mar 6, 2002 Messages 12,030 Reaction score 29,035 Age 43 Online Our defense is balling right now. Filtering by Week 11 QBs, without any team filters, yielded only SF and ARI QBs. Editor-in-Chief There was some hope that Jaxon Smith-Njigba would return for the College Football Playoff. They also had what seems like a very poor draft. If you want to see data from the current season on Monday, including all of Sunday's games, you will need to be an FO+ subscriber. Founder of Football Outsiders It is worth mentioning that this is the second last season with a four-team College Football Playoff. NFL Week 11 - Some big games lead to some big moves up the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings table this week. They had better National Championship odds than USC, who was not considered a CFP team according to those odds. C.J. Coach Sonny Dykes is one of the most innovative in college football, and a month to look at this Michigan team after grinding it out for two months will undoubtedly serve him well. I was of the opinion that running it back with Cousins and other vets was a mistake, the 8-1 start made that thought look foolish, but if they crash and burn the rest of the way, as seems likely, they will have wasted a chance to jettison Cousins and some other aging vets that now have an extra year of wear and tear and far less value. Max Duggan and the TCU are capable of moving the ball. Just do not expect the same game as last year. The lines will certainly move between now and New Year's Eve based on a variety of factors, and it'll be interesting to see how things progress during the layoff. NFL Week 14 - With five weeks to go, all 14 playoff spots are still up for grabs. To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints: is clearly ranked because . 1 ranked Georgia Bulldogs in the Peach Bowl.If you ask anyone outside of the Ohio State sphere what . It's a longshot, but in the grand . That's up from 55.3% a week ago, for a one-week jump of 17.8%. San Francisco's two best offensive performances of the year have come in the last three games. pic.twitter.com/YKBLpG8oJn. BACK-TO-BACK.No. Cin(10-1), NE(11-6), NYJ(13-12), LAC(22-32!) is way better than this. This is the Football Outsiders Top 16 through 11 weeks of 2022, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average (explained further here). Again, Darnell Washington and Brock Bowers will play a big role in the college football championship. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. It is your responsibility to verify such matters and to know and follow your local laws. Sound about right. Ohio State vs. Georgia Prediction: 38-28 Georgia Bulldogs. The College Football Playoff betting odds were definitely interesting last week. Some of it is opponent-adjustment boosts. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek. Here, it's snooze time. Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. It's also interesting to note that the Eagles no longer have the easiest schedule in the division; the Cowboys' remaining schedule is easier than Philadelphia's by average DVOA of opponent. The Patriots outgained the Jets on average 5.0 yards per play to 2.1 yards per play. That puts them ahead of playoff hopeful teams like the Commanders (17th . Aaron and Mike will then wrap up with a quick preview of Eagles-Giants, Vikings-Lions, Buccaneers-49ers, and Dolphins-Chargers. Smith-Njigba will not be participating, though. In fact, the losers of these games may have moved down even more than the winners moved up. The teams included above either have at least a 0.5 percent chance of making the playoff or are in the top 25 in at . Wilson, who the Pats have played twice, is hardly a 'pocket passer'. Expect the defensive pressure to get to Stroud, as well. VOA often matches the eye test better than DVOA, especially when you don't have time, or camera angles, to really see what was going on. However, the Buckeyes can still win the biggest prize of all in the College Football Playoff. These odds on TCU puts them on an island alone. They play the No. After starting the year with a league-best 41.1% offensive DVOA, the Ravens only have played one game with an offensive DVOA above 20% and two games with a DVOA above 10%. Without Week 1, the Dallas offense would move from 14th to seventh in DVOA. Detroit Lions Receivers Key to Daily Fantasy. Bring the adjustments in and that jumps to 16th and 5th and thus 9th overall. 3 TCU. Here's a look at some other teams on the extremes or about to have a real change in the quality of their opponents on one side of the ball or the other: The New York Jets have faced the hardest schedule of opposing pass defenses so far this year. Creator of DVOA andDYAR Sports betting and gambling laws vary by jurisdiction. At least if you look at it from the College Football Playoff odds before the conference championships. 2004-2022 CBS Interactive. Change from Last Week = no change Image Courtesy of FiveThirtyEight. Those schedules rank 23rd and 24th in Weeks 12-17. 4 ranked Ohio State Buckeyes taking on the No. In reply to Why would writers being by greybeard. Here are the division odds from Football Outsiders: 49ers: 51.2 percent Rams: 25.8 percent Seahawks: 20.1 percent Cardinals: 2.9 percent If they get healthy down the stretch the 49ers are the. TCU and Ohio State may not be perfect, but their resumes are still better than Alabama. 8 in the league with a team DVOA of. In reply to A better question would be by KnotMe. 6-keys: media/spln/collegefootball/reg/free/stories, at No. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. Filtering by Week 11 ATL LBs yielded no results. Could be some really bad times coming for Viking fans in the next few years. Their remaining opponents rank 30th in pass defense. BREAKING: The four Heisman finalists have been announced.-Caleb Williams-Max Duggan-CJ Stroud-Stetson Bennett pic.twitter.com/rVE7bDrHWG. I did not expect the gap to be THAT big. However, the biggest concern for TCU has to be how to stop Donovan Edwards. Heisman Trophy favorite, Caleb Williams, tore his hamstring on a long run early in the game. 2 Michigan (-9.5) vs. No. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). Take an offense that relies on the more time consuming run, and a defense that can't stop the time consuming run and you get this team. The one team they play which is significantly better against the pass is Denver in Week 18 (4/18), which won't matter if you have Justin Herbert or Austin Ekeler in the fantasy playoffs. Football Outsiders provides revolutionary, in-depth statistics you can't find anywhere else! Do not be surprised to see these two in the College Football Championship. Sure, the Dolphins have a great offense, but four of Los Angeles' seven remaining opponents are in the bottom eight for offensive DVOA. So the Bucs are still the favorite to win the division, despite a 3-5 record and being a game behind Atlanta. The Minnesota Vikings are dominating the NFC North and they can clinch the division title in Week 14 with a win or tie. The FINAL top-25 CFP rankings Where did your team land? We're sorry, residents of your region are not accepted by this gambling site! It's not that different from other LaFleur years, it's just missing that pass catcher(s) who gets open enough for the occasional shot play that can get them to/into the end zone. USC was going to the College Football Playoff. USC were 3-point favorites against the Utes at Allegiant Stadium . The Minnesota Vikings (10-2) visit the Detroit Lions (5-7) on Sunday. Michigan is rated highly in the secondary and at the line against the run. Click here for the full table. The College Football Playoff odds have the Georgia Bulldogs as the favorites to win. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes. Since backing Georgia two months ago at +215 odds, not much has changed in our view, though. The 2022 version of the Vikings seem more like the 2000 Vikings, a team who's run was up and ready for a big crash starting with 41-0 zip loss the NYG in NFC Championship. Below we continue our NFL odds series with a Vikings-Lions prediction and pick. Keep in mind, the steadiest writers are Eagles and 49ers fans -- so this site has some ingrained loathing for the Cowboys. We went over the Chargers already but a number of other teams see their schedule of opposing run defenses get much harder from here on out. Perhaps this is somewhat related to the astounding dissonance between conventional passer rating (104.6) and QBR (20.4) for Mac Jones. The Vikings have reached shoo-in status to win the NFC North, which would be their first such achievement since . A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. Find out why he likes the Bucs and 49ers to cover, plus what his leans are on the Bills-Chiefs and Bengals-Titans spreads. Kansas City (33.2%) and the AFC North (11.8% total, 9.6% for Cincinnati) follow. The Wolverines have the easier matchup in the semifinals against TCU. DAVE is currently 16% preseason forecast and 84% actual performance for teams with 11 games, and 24% preseason forecast and 76% actual performance for teams with 10 games. With the crazy NFC North results this past weekend, Football Outsiders' playoff odds in that division have changed considerably from a week ago. The Chargers have also played the easiest schedule of run defenses so far. Jacksonville Jaguars RB Travis Etienne. Before breaking down each of these categories, we've got to talk about the Los Angeles Chargers. And although NE's pass rush isn't as good as Dallas', unless the Vikings miraculously fixed their OL woes in 5 days, Cousins is likely be facing more of the same in terms of constant pressure. But sometimes gambling advice is subjective. According to Football Outsiders playoff simulations which penalize the 49ers from Weeks 4-7 for Trent Williams' injury San Francisco has a 48.9% chance to make the playoffs and a 31.7%. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. Add to that the org cut 3 3rd rounders from 2021 draft already. The Trojans were in control with a 17-3 before Williams came up lame and limping. Currently, Football Outsiders sees the Bucs making the playoffs at a 52 percent chance. Per Football Outsiders, a loss to the Kansas City Chiefs (-3) in Week 7 sliced the Niners' chances of making the playoffs by 20.9 percent. The schedule also gets harder for the Giants (26 so far, 2 to go) and the Raiders (23 so far, 3 to go). We look at all these odds with the Football Outsiders playoff odds simulation, simulating the season 50,000 times using Football Outsiders DVOA ratings. 1:54 pm ET, College football bowl odds, picks, computer sims, 2022-23 bowl confidence pool picks, predictions, Top bowl confidence pool picks, predictions for 2022-23, USC QB Caleb Williams wins 2022 Heisman Trophy, Eli Drinkwitz trolls Kansas over NCAA investigation, 2022 CFP odds: Georgia, Michigan open as favorites, USC's Caleb Williams wins 2022 Heisman Trophy, Stanford hires Sacramento State coach Troy Taylor, Bobby Petrino emerging as candidate for TAMU OC job, Michigan mourns death of honoree Dametrius Walker, Report: WAC, ASUN merge in attempt to form FBS league, 2022 awards: USC's Caleb Williams shines as big winner, Rueben Owens, No. This is not a paywall*! Their overall playoff chances dipped 2.5 percent, but they're still in very good shape according to the Football Outsiders table: Playoffs: 93.4 percent Division: 76.6 percent Wild Card:. Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. The Patriots for this game: -10% offense, -60% defense, +10% special teams. The last time we saw them, they were chased off the field at the Horseshoe in Columbus. After selecting Georgia at +215 two months ago, we have been too right to jump off the ship now. That's because their offense was so bad in Week 1. A reminder that all our free stats pages, including DVOA and player position stats, require registration to view. Sometimes, gambling advice is objectivelike in the NFL picks you get with FO+, for instance. Michigan is a juggernaut, though. Your email address will not be published. It was the same this year in 2022 at home. Odds as of 1:10 p.m. on 12/03/2022. It's Trading Places Week at the top of the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings, with a . Visit our College Football Betting Sites page for the latest College Football Playoff odds and the best online sportsbooks. The Minnesota Vikings drop seven spots in DVOA, from 17th to 24th. If you want an in-depth analysis, please check back closer to New Years Eve for our official College Football Playoff picks and props. As a result of the loss, Ohio State is on the College Football Playoff odds board. It was another winning effort last week. Without that game, the 49ers have 13.6% offensive DVOA which would rank seventh in the league. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. The Raiders had 44.0% DVOA for the win, and the Broncos had -58.5% DVOA for the loss. They do everything right offensively and defensively. This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2023 NFL draft. New England enters Week 14 with a 5-7 O/U mark on the year, including 3-3 O/U on the road. . 1 in weighted DVOA, which lowers the importance of early-season games. No-vig odds below via DraftKings Sportsbook. The Vikings have played the No. Your 2022 Big Ten Championship MVP: Donovan Edwards @DEdwards__ x @UMichFootball pic.twitter.com/hrf0hPpAwz. The Bulldogs are the favorites on the College Football Playoff betting odds board. How Philadelphia Eagles Took the Fight to Tennessee Titans, Why Cincinnati Bengals Are Kansas City's Worst Nightmare, Waiver Wire Week 14: Playoff Push Pickups, The Wild World of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings, Tyler Huntley, Justin Fields, and the QB Rushing Quandary, Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush, USC Falls Hard, TCU Makes Playoff Despite Loss, Burrow-to-Chase Returns; 49ers' Purdy Predicament, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Bengals, Chiefs Lead Loaded Schedule, TCU, USC Put Playoff Bids on the Line in Championship Week, All-32: Michael Gallup Set for Big Game Against Colts, Micah Parsons' DPOY Problem; Partying with the Broncos, How Bengals Beat Titans at Their Own Game, Breaking Down the Playoff Picture, from Eagles to Texans. Total playoff odds: 93.1% | Weekly change: -2.3%. Certainly not the Alabama Crimson Tide. 1 seed, and a much slimmer possibility they slip to a lower Wild Card slot. There's a chance they could overtake the Eagles for the NFC East lead and the No. Our AI predicts that the Utah Jazz will Lakers title odds improve as the team is starting to play better. If the game was being played outdoors, the Vikings might still have a chance. If Williams does not pull his hamstring, does USC win that game? Georgia survives, but the Wolverines will be ready to play this time. *Football Outsiders simulations have the Vikings slated for 12.1 victories this season better than any other team in the NFL. Fields ate them for lunch on 3rd down scrambles, and Allen is likely to do the same in their upcoming games against BUF, both of which they'll likely be trounced in. Football Outsiders' model is less bullish on the Chargers, giving them a 16.8 percent chance of making the playoffs, down from 29.7 percent heading into Week 13. MORE: The 49ers Skyrocket in Latest Power Rankings The Cowboys have a 78.1% chance to stick in that fifth spot, according to Football Outsiders ' playoff odds. That will generate the new narrative. The Chargers' schedule is filled with teams that are better against the run than the pass, including the Raiders (32/22), the Titans (13/1), the Dolphins (29/9), the Colts (14/6), and the Rams (26/5). It's no surprise that the top two seeds are favored, as both Georgia and Michigan . Michigan and Ohio State have considerably better odds to win the college football championship. All they had to do was beat the Utah Utes in the Pac-12 Championship. 3 TCU. Detroit's loss on Monday night was devastating, as . The run game has been very good at times though, just not always used in the best situations so it doesn't help win chances. The reigning national champions have been a machine all season long, finishing off their run with a 50-30 win over LSU in the SEC Championship Game. We are not able to verify the legality of the information we provide, or your ability to use any sites that are linked to on this site, for every combination of your location, the sites location, and the type of service those sites provide. It's almost all defense, even after adjusting for the Jets offense. The timing has been off a lot too, where Rodgers is throwing where he thinks the open receiver should be based on the play and how the defense redacted (I.e. 4 USC to win their second consecutive Pac-12 Championship. 1? The College Football Playoff is set, with the No. 1 RB for 2023, commits to TAMU, CBS Sports All-America Team: Big Ten dominates. Saints vs. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Cowboys, 49ers Climb in DVOA with Big Wins, Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . Football Outsiders gives the Bills a 73.1% chance to win the division. The Raiders outgained the Broncos 6.6 yards per play to 5.2 and the Broncos fumbled twice but recovered both. I'd argue the D should be even better considering some of the names they have, but Joe Barry is excelling in having them perform as lesser than the sum of their parts. Baltimore (6 so far, 25 to go) and Washington (9 so far, 31 to go) also face much easier schedules of opposing pass defenses the rest of the way. more? It is the first playoff for the TCU Horned Frogs. The Zimmer teams made decent runs in 17 and 19, but faded as the talent on the defence got old. He returns in 20% of simulations by Week 15, 60% of simulations by Week 16, and all simulations by Week 17. An Aaron Rodgers fantasy football comeback, perhaps? We have new, innovative methods for analyzing skill players, offensive and defensive lines, special teams, and total team efficiency. In reply to And a good thing it is for by Lost Ti-Cats Fan. This report lists the odds of several "special" Super Bowl matchups. They entered today with a 74.6% chance at the postseason by Football Outsiders' playoff odds report, and odds are that number is only going to go up. Baltimore simulation assumes that Lamar Jackson will miss Week 14. Yes, if you're asking, they are the worst 8-2 team ever by DVOA. QBR takes that out, while DVOA/DYAR does not. The Bucs' chances of the playoffs fell 15 percent after losing to the Crows and seeing the Dixie Chicks win. Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts & WR A.J. I'm with you, life has really gotten in the way of me watching the games live and commenting here, but when I've watched replays it's just been so meh. OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for opponent and performance indoors and consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. #Seahawks +17.7% #TakeFlight +15.8% #GoBucs +11.0% Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 10,000 simulations. The Horned Frogs went from afterthought to undefeated regular-season power over the last three months and will take on a Wolverines team that is undefeated and riding high after their second straight Big Ten title. Alabama had the better odds throughout the season. Ohio State did not go to the Big Ten Championship after losing to Michigan in the regular season finale at home. While the playoffs are still technically possible I gave up on making it after the Tennessee loss. When we look at remaining offensive schedules, I'm going to include Week 18. They are at +350 to beat Georgia and then their next opponent in the championship game. Sitting at 5-7 on the season with the . On the other hand, the Arizona Cardinals have had it easy so far with the No. trusting the scheme got them open) and the receiver wasn't there for various reasons (wrong option break, route a bit sloppier and hence slower). BetMGM books are reporting 73% of bets and 89% . Alliteration! The reason FO comment boards don't care about Dallas is because they have not had any real success since 1995. "The New York Jets have faced the hardest schedule of opposing pass defenses so far this year.". Oddsmakers clearly think that this will be semifinal that isn't that competitive -- something that has happened quite often in the CFP era. When Strouds No. Cine was injured, but couldn't get on the field before the injury, Booth looks horrendous, and the only drafted player getting any playing time, Ingram (G) is really bad. The public does not have much faith in TCU following their 31-28 loss in the Big 12 Championship Game. When looking at seeding, remember seven teams from each conference make the playoffs. Cowboys qualify for 2017-18 NFL Playoffs Yes +1500 No -6000. The Bears got a bump in their odds (+5.8%) after the victory over the Lions on Sunday. All college football betting odds for Clemson vs North Carolina can be found at B ovada Sportsbook.. Moneyline: CLEM: (-280) | UNC: (+230) Point Spread: CLEM: -7.5 (-110) | UNC: +7.5 (-110) Total: 63.5 Over: (-110) | Under: (-110) College Football FEI Ratings. Mac Jones' QBR is probably very low because he was heavily dependent on YAC. So let's do that and take a look. Then we are going to make our prediction for the college football National Championship. Except for the Chargers, who we already covered above, the changes aren't as large when it comes to the quality of offenses faced. Here's where Football Outsiders has their chances after four weeks: Playoffs: 15.5% Division: 10% Super Bowl: 0.2% The Bears' 0.2% chance at winning the Super Bowl is tied with the Steelers and Dolphins for the 25th "best" odds in the league. Michigan created a blueprint for beating Ohio State and the Bulldogs will use it for themselves. The talent is there for the Buckeyes, but perhaps more importantly, they'll have a month off to prepare and get healthy -- particularly at running back. But, for the tippy-top of the league . I wish I could find the reference for unbalanced teams (it was mentioned recently IIRC, but search failed me), but the pats -19.7%(1) defense and -12.8%(26) offence combo, while not quite historic, the 32.5% DVOA difference was pretty up there. The Wolverines should be too physical for TCU. Check out our Saints vs. It looks like Week 11 snap count data may have been added for SF/ARI, but not other games: Detroit has climbed into the top half of the league by DVOA! According to Football Outsiders Playoff Odds Report, the Broncos now have less than a 20% chance to make the postseason. The College Football Playoff had some hard decisions to make after USC and TCU lost, but they got it right. Michigan, Georgia, and Ohio State are not newcomers to the College Football Playoff. Opponent adjustments are now at full strength. Our total DVOA stats page lists each team's remaining schedule based on average DVOA of opponent. The quarterbacks are fine and close to the same level. That would be the New England Patriots, even though they needed a last-second punt return touchdown to avoid going to overtime with the New York Jets. The casino will be rebranded as Golden Nugget Hotel Want to stay up to date on all of the latest blogs, news, and Picks on The Sports Geek? With a record of 8-4 and wins in five of the last six weeks, even the advanced statistics are favoring the Dolphins. But here's the list of the 10 worst 8-2 teams. 5 schedule of opposing offenses so far. They drafted Moss the next season and they pretty good for a few years. 5. Football Outsiders gives the Bills a 46.3% chance of securing the No. A key AFC East divisional clash will unfold on Sunday of NFL Week 14 action MONEYLINE -150ODDS OUR PICK PORTUGAL PLACE BET! TheSportsGeek looks to add +3.5SPREAD -110ODDS OUR PICK CHARGERS PLACE BET! However, the College Football Playoff committee avoided a major controversy by denying the Crimson Tide. Last week, FiveThirty pegged Minnesota as the NFL's 10th-best team. ( DVOA ratings are explained here .) For one, we know he will officially be without one of his favorite receivers. In reply to Keep in mind, the steadiest by Aaron Brooks G. Not hard to imagine the Giants losing out the rest of the way with their schedule, but I can imagine the Lions at 8-9. (DAVE ratings are explained here.) Likeliest foe in the first playoff game? The College Football Playoff had some hard decisions to make after USC and TCU lost, but they got it right. According to Football Outsiders, the Browns' odds of making the playoffs are up from 2.7 percent a week ago to 4.4 percent today. 1 target is covered, he has issues working through his progressions. That's a little better than a 1/17 shot. This year Georgia has a target on their backs going into New Years Eve. Here are the early odds for the national semifinals courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Michigan won The Game in a laugher by a score of 45-23. CBS Sports is a registered trademark of CBS Broadcasting Inc. Commissioner.com is a registered trademark of CBS Interactive Inc. site: media | arena: collegefootball | pageType: stories | The playoffs will expand to a 12-team format beginning in 2024-25. They are outsiders without much confidence behind the Horned Frogs. document.getElementById( "ak_js" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Football Outsiders playoff odds, snap counts, and the FO+ database are now all updated through Week 13. The four-team College Football Playoff is set, and it will consist of Georgia, Michigan, TCU and Ohio State. 4 Ohio State in the Peach Bowl national semifinal, and No. New England Patriots. So again as mentioned by others if Watson/Doubs/Watkins when off IR/Lazard can just rotate games where one of them actually does reliably get open so 15-25 yard passes can happen a couple times a game you are back to 2019 or 2021 offensive production. This comes with one last game before the NFL trade deadline on Nov. 2 . If you like Georgia, getting on them now before the Peach Bowl is advised. Bills at Patriots Thursday Night - NFL betting odds, picks, tips Week 11 of the NFL season gets underway Thursday with an AFC East matchup between the Buffalo Bills (-4, 43.5) and New England. A Jets win would have been a massive reversal according to Post-Game Win Expectancy. However, it's also possible to split up remaining schedules by offense and defense or pass and run to see which teams and units might look better or worse over the rest of the season thanks to who's on the other side of the field. The Christmas Eve matchup between these teams takes place in Dallas, so the NFC East race isn't over yet. TCU is the most unlikely team to win the four-team tournament. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current DAVE ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. It would have been an entertaining 4th quarter, with Williams likely pulling more magic out of his hat. The most well-rounded teams this season have been Georgia and Michigan. ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. That said, Tampa Bay's playbook is terribly inefficient despite that pace, ranked 21st in EPA per play. While not astronomical, those odds are, at least, not zero. The Football Outsiders playoff odds report thinks they have a 5.9% chance of making the playoffs. That moves the Cowboys up from fourth to second in DVOA. I don't think NE's linebackers are fast enough to contain QBs who can make things happen once they escape the pocket. It may happen with the easier schedule. The four-team College Football Playoff field is set, and it features three superpowers plus one upstart program that is finally getting its chance. I've been having trouble getting to the site recently, don't know if it has been on my end or theirs, but it wouldn't shock me if comments are down the last few days. Yikes. The exception will be snap counts, which will still be available to everyone Monday but now will be updated earlier. NFL Week 13 - There aren't many weeks left of the fantasy season, but now isn't the time to switch off. The rest of the way, it ranks second. In reply to I just can't figure out what by Cheesehead_Canuck. TheSportsGeek has our predictions for the Peach Bowl and Fiesta Bowl. It's possible that the Lions had a bad game and didn't score at all against NE despite scoring 45 points the week before and averaging 25 points per game. The third huge winner of the week? Should make an exciting race. The Losee project would Baker Mayfield delivered a performance for the ages on Thursday, two days after he joined the Los Angeles Rams. The Raiders move up one spot to 26th but the Broncos drop three spots from 22nd to 25th. In reply to Worst 8-2 Teams by Jimmytossinbeachble. Buccaneers Week 13 picks If this is going to happen, C.J. On Tuesday morning when we post the update with Monday Night Football added in, all of the free stats pages become free again. As in, the number one -- the number of wins the Patriots have over the Broncos to give them an edge to land the top seed in the . Jim Harbaugh and the Wolverines are a perfect 13-0 after beating the Iowa Hawkeyes for the Big Ten Championship. NFL Playoffs Odds, Picks, Predictions Bengals vs. Titans Odds Early Pick: Lean Titans -2.5 (to -3.5) Sigh. The 97 team had a miracle win against the Giants in the playoffs, and then got pounded the next week in SF (the Viking way after every miracle - immediately squash any sense of hope a fan might have). NFL Week 14 - Compiled by Vincent Verhei. The game kicks off at 1 pm ET. Here are the Football Outsiders playoff seeding odds for the Cowboys: #1 seed: 15% #5 seed: 75% For illustration, the Vikings' odds for the #1 seed is 3% per Football Outsiders. If we leave out the Broncos in Week 18, the Chargers have the hardest remaining schedule of opposing run defenses. So we don't always see how the good defenses are impacting things, just that they don't look good, which is closer to what raw VOA measures. 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