football outsiders projections

Rams vs. As always, the offensive projections come out in a wider range than defensive projections because offense performance tends to be easier to predict (and more consistent from year to year) than defensive performance. And maybe Ryan is better than he was in Atlanta, but he's not the guy he was several years before the decline. Gannon missed all of 1994 and almost all of 1995. For fantasy lovers, we have week-by-week projections and research tools to keep you on top of your fantasy leagues. New Orleans 9. "Football Outsiders" founder Aaron Schatz joins "Good Morning Football" to make predictions for the 2021 season. Basically, they had whole position groups consisting of third-stringers or street FAs, plus the typical assortment of various injuries throughout the roster. There is no way this year's CB room is worse. 2021 NFL Draft: Toney's Football Outsiders projection isn't ideal GatorSports.com Schedule Teams SEC Alabama Arkansas Auburn Georgia LSU Tennessee Texas A&M ACC Clemson UNC Big Ten Iowa Michigan. I've been saying on various promotional podcast appearances that the offensive line injuries in Tampa Bay didn't drop the Buccaneers below the Kansas City Chiefs in our offensive projections but once I did a final update on the offensive line variables, guess what? With normal luck and without so many late comebacks, the 2017 Lions are probably going to have fewer wins, despite improvement on last season's last-place defense. On top of that, we also project the Patriots with the easiest schedule in the NFL for 2017. There's just way less uncertainty with them than with other teams. The Bengals manhandled the Ravens late in the season. New Orleans Saints: 7-9 (7.2 mean wins; SOS: 22) Football Outsiders' DVOA Ranks Arizona Cardinals as One of Worst Teams in NFL - Sports Illustrated Arizona Cardinals News, Analysis and More Football Outsiders Ranks Cardinals as One of. Something just feels really wonky about these ratings, probably as much as ever (though the years blend together after a while). This will continue to be the worst division in the NFL, but at least Tennessee and Jacksonville seem like teams on the rise. Georgia won 45-19. Now, again, without giving away the whole store. (With all due respect to their distinguished careers. Bills-Patriots NFL Player Props Josh Allen Under 266.5 Passing Yards. New York Jets 12. San Francisco. You can find a detailed breakdown of our projection methodology at the bottom of the article. Subscribe Now Get all the features and proprietary analytics you can't get anywhere else. Power Rankings Power Rankings; Early 2017 NFL projections: NFC East repeat in Big D? That bodes poorly against a Michigan front seven that's allowed just 3.0 yards per carry this . And all seemed right with the world(well, for me anyways). If you miss a live stream, you can watch or listen to every show on YouTube or listen to the podcast version. Let's take a look at those teams, beginning with the four teams that have improved: And the five teams that declined significantly since the book: I know the reason Washington's huge projected drop is because they were all defense, no offense last year (and defense regresseshard) but holy cow that's the one team I can glance at and say "yeah, they'll probably be significantly better than that." I do think there are legitimate concerns about the level of Jackson's play, the lack of receivers, and lack of pass rush. The Eagles were better than their record in 2016, but our system expects regression to the mean from their defense. Founder of Football Outsiders Recent and Trending topics from Football Outsiders. As a writer who uses stats to analyze a sport that's tough to analyze with stats, I try to follow two rules: Run the numbers unadulterated and don't be a slave to them. On the other hand, the offensive projection is driven by the quarterback, and Ryan Tannehill has finished 24th and 27th in QBR over the past two seasons. 1, Week 9 DVOA Preview: The Eagles Have Landed, ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). I even remember Doctor Z writing a playful article about how he planned to ask Manning after his HOF speech and 2 sb rings(prescient) about why he was so needlessly aggressive on that final drive. This feels like the kind of team Jeff Fisher dreams about every night. Brian Fremeau provides [] NFL Week 1 - The Buffalo Bills are clear favorites in 2022 according to our DVOA projections and season simulation. 3. What If Justin Herbert Isn't All That Great? Impressive that even the Bills get only a 12.7% SB win chance despite a good offseason and being pretty stacked. I'm really surprised that the Ravens are ranked at 2. 2. It was all cold comfort. Get FO+ Already a subscriber? Between going to a new coach and system I would expect some difficulties but I can't think of a good comp. The Chiefs were 6-2 in regular-season games decided by less than a touchdown, and they led the NFL by ending 16.7 percent of opposing drives with a takeaway. On today's show, the guys will grade both 2022 interim head coaches (Jeff Saturday and Steve Wilks), discuss the Cincinnati Bengals turnaround, the . Our final question has to do with the outlook for the 2022 Vikings, as the Football Outsiders projections seem to really like the club. Not a particularly high ceiling for this offense, but I'm not really seeing a world where NYG, CAR, CHI, or NYJ ever pass them up on offense, and they'll probably be better than teams like DET, HOU, and PIT. 1) to the easiest (New England). Football Outsiders takes a look at which second-year quarterback could improve the most in 2020. video Previewing Bills' 2022 floor and ceiling scenarios See what changes the Buffalo Bills made. On one hand, FO. Minnesota Vikings News and Links, 10-11 December 2022, The Daily Norsemans Minnesota Vikings Twitter List, The Complete Minnesota Vikings Draft Pick Database. In reply to There wasn't enough of a by Bryan Knowles. But the mean of the range of possibilities has those four teams lower than the rest of the conference. The #7 DVOA defense is gonna drop back 6 slots this year? And of course that would land them in "solidly below-average" territory, but not among the dregs of the league sincesome teams will underperform the worst projections. Thats just a penalty for having your tough games early in the season. The defensive projection I'd like to hear more about is Miami's. I can see a world where the Bears and the Jets have a better offensive DVOA than Washington because Fields or Wilson reach their potential but you are correct that it is much more likely that Wentz leads Washington to a better offense than either of those teams. The schedule strength ratings also account for the six games where playing Cleveland is a much harder game from Week 13 to Week 18 (Houston, New Orleans, Washington, and the three AFC North rivals). In reply to Last year's Ravens were the by dmb. Each time it plays through the season, it adds 1.5% to the DVOA of every winner and subtracts 1.5% from the DVOA of every loser before moving on to the next week's games. Well, there are 7 worse by projected wins, which seems reasonable. That first-place finish doesn't do the Texans any schedule favors, because there's a big difference between playing the Patriots and playing the other AFC East teams. And why are the Titans so bad? At the start of a new season, our simulation is very conservative about the average number of wins and losses expected for each team. This is the most lopsided of the 10 conference championship games. Houston Texans: 6-10 (6.1 mean wins; SOS: 10). Last Big Home Game of the Season for the Lions, Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions: Final injury reports for both teams, Vikings at Lions - Underdog?! DVOA is a percentage, so a team with a DVOA of 10.0% is 10 percent better than the average team, and a quarterback with a DVOA of. Cuz lmao that's gonna look silly in a couple months. Most notably, Football Outsiders' models have been down on the Bucs all year. Note that there's a big difference between DVOA and projected DVOA. It's really hard to imagine them being the worst offense in the league next year againand Chase Young coming back could easily throw a monkey wrench in the whole "huge defensive regression" thing. Theyshould, but the exact same thing was said about Miami/Marino after they lost that SB to the Niners. Otherwise, they wouldn't haveme doing it; good lord. Seattle And GB is right in the middle, but theyre probably the most talented in the league. The secondary might take its lumps, particularly early on, but the level of talent there is higher than what the Vikings had in 2021. Raiders vs Rams picks and predictions. . The Cardinals' offense will aim to surpass the Football Outsiders projections in 2021. Thus, Los Angeles has an average losing margin of 9.5 . 2. Having locked in my odds, y'all are now invited to join in. What is that defensive projection? Projected division champions are colored in light yellow and projected wild-card teams are colored in light purple. The Baltimore Ravens are up despite a loss, the Miami Dolphins are down despite a blowout win. Indeed. They're basically the only team that's almost guaranteed to have very good special teams, which raises their mean projection overall. Will there be a Loser League this season? A projection of ~16% for the best team seems low to me. Los Angeles Chargers: 8-8 (7.9 mean wins; SOS: 14) Stafford, Donald, Kupp: Bang, Marry, or Dump? What's up with them going from -12.6 DVOA last season to 2.5% in the preseason projections? The fine folks at FootballOutsiders.com (FO) published their annual Football Outsiders Almanac yesterday. And their schedule comes out easier than the other NFC West teams. Miami Dolphins: 6-10 (6.3 mean wins; SOS: 18) MLB winter meetings winners, losers and takeaways: Our favorite (and least favorite) moves of the week, NCAA volleyball 2022 regionals: Expert breakdown and predictions, Transfer Talk: Man City tracking France World Cup star Theo Hernandez. Somehow swapping out Heinicke and Scherff for Wentz and Norwell equates to an 11 spot drop? Use promo code, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Eagles, Giants Fight for Playoffs, Khalil Mack Key to Chargers' Chances Against Dolphins, Jason Kelce's All-Time Block Leads Eagles Over Titans. See our ethics statement. The 49ers will be starting a rookie fourth-round pick at right guard (Spencer Burford), a second-year player with very little game experience at left guard (Aaron Banks), and a journeyman center with only three NFL starts (Jake Brendel) instead of Alex Mack. Like, the decision to go to Smith actually made sense, which is why it was such a ridiculously bad offense. Ebukam year 2/rookie Jackson seem like an upgrade over Arden Key/corpse of Dee Ford. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/qb/2021, Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. As we've assumed from all of the individual preseason rankings we've seen (not to mention the magazines), Alabama, Ohio State, and Oregon are the top two, and the top 10 is filled out with Stanford, Clemson, Louisville, and SEC teams. Editor's Picks. Buffalo At least one of the AFC South teams will climb up and be better than this. This reflects the fact that DVOA projections are just estimates, and actual performance during the season gives us better knowledge of how good or bad teams really are. 1. Breakdowns on the top 50 college football teams and full win-loss projections for all 131 Division I-A (FBS) teams. NFL Week 12 QB Projections ; NFL Week 12 QB Notes Josh Allen (BUF) vs. DET: Over the past month, Allen (950-4-6 passing, 5.9 AY/A) has looked more like his 2018-19 self (6.2 AY/A) than the. 7. There are good signs for Atlanta's late-season defensive improvement to continue in 2017 but not enough to counter the likely offensive decline. 4. Arizona* Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Interim HC Grades, Harbaugh Collapses? Green Bay Bosa is now 2 years removed from the ACL tear and Fred Warner is going into year 2 of a new defensive system. 6. In the five years since, 2015-2019, the mean DVOA forecast had a correlation with actual wins of .503. . Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. At that point, I wanted to abandon being a colts fan. In reply to I would assume DVOA includes by KnotMe. Will Georgia's Balanced Attack Win Another Championship? In reply to More level playing field by dmstorm22. Football Outsiders will be streamingLIVEevery weekday at during the NFL season. "A book that any self-respecting NFL fan needs to purchase." -- Bill Simmons, The Ringer.com The bottom dozen teams in the league by DVOA projection consist of the entire AFC South and eight NFC teams. Obviously nobody's picking up any Bills or Rams, but I thought it'd be out by now. Offensive projections also incorporate a separate projection for the starting quarterback done independent of the team. 13th? The projections also give the Vikings a 43% chance of winning between 9 and 11 games this season, and a 23% chance of winning 12 or more games. . Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. So in some sense I tend to think it's schematic, whereas for most other teams it's just luck. There are going to be at least a couple of familiar faces missing from the Minnesota defense this season. Here are early projections for every team. Said another way I can buy them being outside of the top 10 on defense, but it'd take an utter disaster for them to be last in the league on offense. You add it all up and the Colts have a roster destined to conquer the might middle of the NFL. He writes regularly for ESPN.com and ESPN the Magazine, and has done custom research for a number of NFL teams. Meanwhile, the Denver offense drops 0.2% having gained Wilson? The numbers here are a forecast, with offense, defense, and special teams DVOA all projected separately using a system based on looking at trends for teams going back to 2009. Agreed. NFL Underdogs: NFL Picks, and Predictions Week 14. 8. by Aaron Brooks G. I guess the prediction is that continues. 12. This is the thing that feeds into DAVE for the first couple games, right? The offense for the most part seems ok, but could something be off with your defensive components? Eleven of the 12 teams that would make the playoffs based on mean projections are teams that made the playoffs in one of the past two seasons. Houston might have won the division last season, but the Texans ranked a dismal 29th in our DVOA ratings. In reply to On the other hand, the 49ers by Aaron Brooks G, In reply to Wasn't last year the bad one? Last year, it stood out because of its optimism regarding the Cardinals, projecting the team to win 8.1 games when most others expected less. I suppose it may get less interesting now that we are past covid (Mike Glennon getting starts! Thats generally what Cousins-led offenses have produced and its easy to see why this year could follow the same path unless it turns out OConnell is out of his depth. In reply to 1) It's not too late to get by Vincent Verhei. (You can find last year's final ratings here.) Slight improvements along the offensive line on top of whatever offensive flare OConnell may bring should be enough to get the Vikings jostling for a top-10 ranking again. He was basically a drunken Garoppolo. Can the Vikings prove Vegas wrong & clinch? The smaller simulation comes out with a wider range of outcomes than the more complicated simulation we do for the book. What exactly is driving the Seahawks offensive collapse and what exactly is offsetting the Broncos gaining Wilson? Washington Redskins: 7-9 (7.2 mean wins; SOS: 2). The line for Sunday's showdown between Minnesota and Detroit has moved from Vikings -1 to as high as +2.5 since open. Carolina After that, we account for general regression trends and incorporate a number of other variables that measure everything from turnover ratios to personnel and coaching changes on both sides of the ball. Fading Josh Allen is always a scary proposition, but this under has a lot of value. We also expect Cincinnati to bounce back on both sides of the ball, and the Bengals get eight home games again after losing one to London in 2016. We know you are here for the FREE analytics, not the ads. I don't have much faith in Lance, but that's a good roster, and they did just fine with Jimmy G the last few years. There is also serious top 3 upside if the pass rush is as good as it looks on paper. Indy looked like by far the best team(although it had some rather worrying regular season hiccups). Baltimore has brought in talent on defense in free agency, but the Ravens have lost a lot, as well, with the trade of Timmy Jernigan and the surprising retirement of Zachary Orr. In reply to The defensive projection I'd by Noahrk. In reply to Rust is hard to project. A composite of popular computer formula rankings had Alabama third and TCU eighth. It also likes drafting defensive players high up, including Lewis Cine and Andrew Booth. Football Outsiders is a data-driven football site that doesn't adhere to typical narratives about teams. Numbers will change over the next few months because of personnel moves, including the NFL draft. 16. I don't see many good reasons for them to finish outside of the top 10. For those with FO+, during the season you will have the full updated stats and analytics for all 32 NFL teams. Off topic, I know, but where is Loser League? The point of this for Bills fans is to remember the following: It may feel like you have to win NOW. (One other change I made from the book simulation: Kansas City has a higher special teams projection here based on the fact that the Chiefs, like Baltimore and New England, have been somewhat consistent on special teams ranking in the top five for seven of the last nine years since Dave Toub took over as special teams coordinator.). 9.8% DVOA last year, -5.6% this year, most of the difference seems to be on offence. Would personally really enjoy a more limited loser league if it was still possible, the overall tone of scramble makes very enjoyable reading, In reply to Bits and pieces by HitchikersPie. The Bulldogs are the clear . Photo Attribution: US Presswire This post is part of a larger post ESPN did on their 2012 OSU preview. Jacksonville Jaguars: 8-8 (7.5 mean wins; SOS: 30) I assumed the schedule was part of the reason for the wins projection but even the DVOA projection surprised me and I assume that's schedule-adjusted. 9. 16. In Va. Indianapolis Colts: 7-9 (6.6 mean wins; SOS: 28) Philadelphia The underdog, Liquid, is currently priced at +131 moneyline odds. Early 2017 NFL projections: NFC East repeat in Big D? We're forecasting a lot of offensive regression from Atlanta, which went from 23rd in offensive DVOA in 2015 to first in 2016 and now has to adapt to a new offensive coordinator. In reply to Off topic, I know, but where by Calipanther. In reply to I was initially stunned that by theslothook. The Cowboys enter Week 13 ranked No. The obvious one to question for me is Cleveland. What are the odds that this unit is still bottom 3 against deep balls? Hell, he was hurt for a chunk of 1993, too. 1 team overall going into the 2022 season but we have new No. Make sure to getsigned up for FO+! Dallas Cowboys: 10-6 (9.5 mean wins; SOS: 1) No matter the stat, there's never been a 10-2 team like the Minnesota Vikings. It seemed mind boggling. In the book, Arizona had the hardest projected schedule in the league. Scott Spratt in Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. I think everyone at this point knows when a rookie QB plays New England it's gonna be pick central. Moseley/C.Ward/Womack will be a big upgrade over last year's starters. 2021 fantasy football projections for more than 500 skill position players based on the KUBIAK forecasting system. 1 projected special teams unit. Breakdowns on the top 50 college football teams and full win-loss projections for all 130 Division I-A (FBS) teams. Watson isn't good enough to get 11 Brisset games up to Mayfields level I guess. The Rams have been mired in a six-game losing streak. Thats going to be a pretty good team if it happens, better than people are expecting. I suppose it might include a subjective appreciation of coaching, but it seems incredibly difficult to project such a thing correctly. Atlanta* We have a great show lined up, from should Jalen Reagor be used more, the anatomy of a concussion, and is there a better solution for Darrisaw and Evans, to breaking down the Kitties. Minnesota's projection is a bit of a surprise, until you realize just how poor the Vikings were in the second half of last season: 24th in offensive DVOA and 19th in defensive DVOA from Week 10 onward. NFL Week 1 - The Buffalo Bills are clear favorites in 2022 according to our DVOA projections and season simulation. Los Angeles Rams: 8-8 (8.1 mean wins; SOS: 20) Thanks! Ian O'Connor and Vince Verhei are to review the most impactful games and coaching decisions from the past weekend of football. And of course, the season played out like that. Is this all Flores? Here's what the 2017 NFC playoff picture would look like according to our early projections. Kirk Cousins probably is the player in the NFL who forces the biggest disagreements between stats people and film people, but the dude is consistently like the 10th best quarterback in the league, statistically. On today's show, the guys will grade both 2022 interim head coaches (Jeff Saturday and Steve Wilks), discuss the Cincinnati Bengals turnaround, the Baltimore Ravens trend of late-game . With a couple weeks of training camp in the books league-wide, various outlets are laying out their predictions for the 32 teams. If you buy something from an SB Nation link, Vox Media may earn a commission. Always interested to hear which bits and pieces people want to continue, so I can act accordingly! Even when they're bad they're notthatbad. The AFC is more difficult not because it has the best teams but because the NFC has the worst teams. 2. Aaron Schatz in DVOA Analysis Is there any variable for coaches? (Rogelio V. Solis/AP) It shouldn't be hard to make Georgia vs. LSU predictions. That was enough to drop them into a projected last place in a very close AFC South where we have every team with an average projection below .500. So what am I missing? (You'll find last year's final ratings here.) In reply to "All defense, no offense" by dmb. 10. You should check it out but if not, I've re-posted the highlights. New England Patriots: 13-3 (13.2 mean wins; strength of schedule: 32) Kansas City* Indianapolis has mustered 16 and 17 points vs. quality defenses in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia the past two games. They started the season slow, had a very strong middle, and then faltered at the end. Each team has a forecasted record but also, for those of you wanting more detail, a more exact "mean projected wins" number. In reply to that one is confusing by RickD. Football Outsiders released its DVOA projections for 2020 and the advanced analytics site didn't rank the Denver Broncos high, though its ranking doesn't tell the whole story. 4. We know you are here for the FREE analytics, not the ads. 8. There's a lot of randomness in the NFL: Player development is difficult to predict; injuries have a huge impact; and even the better team on an individual day might not win because of the arbitrary bounce of a fumble or a tipped pass. Unlikely (I think it would take some Philly injuries), but not stunning. It is a veritable treasure trove of football information spread out over 575 pages.. I think Michael Vick is a good close comparison. Rust is hard to project. Roundtable: Who has been the top waiver wire pickup so far this season? Per Aaron Schatz, Football Outsiders' founder, the projection system was built using the seasons from 2003 through 2014. Welcome to the Football Outsiders Coach Rankings show for NFL Week 13! Mercifully, I didn't have to wait long to savor the opposite feeling. They've lost by 17, 3, 10, 7, 16, and 4 points since their bye in Week 7. The Bears will have a better defense and get closer to .500, thanks to defensive back additions in free agency and returning injured players, including Kyle Fuller and Lamarr Houston. (A standard 2 year jump would make him almost elitewhich seems waaaay wrong). Use promo code WRITERS to save 10% on any FO+ membership and give half the cost of your membership to tip the team of writers. Cincinnati Bengals: 9-7 (8.8 mean wins; SOS: 26) 3. Should the Patriots, Steelers and Cowboys all expect to make the playoffs again? Yeah, no, that's what I meant - as in "oh my god everything's so horrible let's actually give Alex a try." Are you *sure* you put the numbers in right? Not really applicable. Bills vs. Patriots predictions Patriots +3.5 (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook Sharp money has continuously hit this line since the opener, as the Patriots have dropped from 5.5-point underdogs to 3.5 . Don't worry -- the tone ain't going nowhere! Be sure to subscribe to the podcast by looking for the "Football Outsiders Podcast Network" on your favorite podcast app. Even Zimmer really didnt back in 2014. Use promo code WRITERS to save 10% on any FO+ membership and give half the cost of your membership to tip the team of writers. I could give examples from my Jets fandom, but I don't want to belabor the point too much. Los Angeles Chargers Tim Patrick has been really good the last couple years! Either way it's not like Watson started from day one on his first NFL team either (and that was a big change coming from college). The 49ers defense seems like a lock for a top 5 season given the easier schedule. There's this general conventional wisdom that the AFC is super difficult this year because of how good the best teams are, but our projections suggest that the opposite is true. It's interesting when they compare the preseason predictions to the results partway the year. You are correct that the Bills' championship window should be open for more than just this year, but you never know. They now project a 7-9 . Breakdowns on the top 50 college football teams and full win-loss projections for all 130 Division I-A (FBS) teams. Seattle improves because of Geno Smith replacing Drew Lock as the starting quarterback. The Tigers scored 34 points per game behind a good offensive line (14th in Football Outsiders' Line Yards metric), an excellent running game (25th in Rush EPA per play), and improved play from . We're. San Francisco is the opposite of the New York Jets, where the decline in the offensive projection is due to offensive line changes and you can quibble with that if you would like. Scramble isn't returning this year, but I'm writing a column for Thursdays which will carry over much of the general Scramblyness (including things like the KCW team and the Joe Thomas draft and the various yearly staples). Thanks to some personnel movement in the preseason, the entire rest of the AFC comes out ahead of the best team of the AFC South (Indianapolis). As somebody who never participated (partly due to never actually signing up for an account until the playoffs last year), I totally understand why it's more work than justified by the response, but I always loved the loser/KCW portions of the weekly columns and would hate to see it disappear entirely. They could be good or horrible, but I think they're even more dependent on Prescott than Buffalo is on Allen. As Aaron mentioned, losing Hilton and Doyle hurts even if both were basically on the downslope of their careers. This is the strongest division in the NFL, where last season all four teams finished in the DVOA top 10, but an arduous schedule might leave three of the four teams out of the postseason. Phillips' scheme will likely have a similar effect in Los Angeles, where the defense was already loaded with talent in the front seven. A way-too-early look at the USMNT depth chart for 2026 World Cup, Man City's Castellanos is settling nicely in WSL, just in time for Man United's visit. Personnel changes aren't the only difference between this updated simulation and the one we did for Football Outsiders Almanac 2022. New York Giants: 8-8 (7.8 mean wins; SOS: 7) (Denver was going to be a projected playoff team, but the Raiders have passed them slightly in this new simulation.) Even when I didn't play, I enjoyed the recaps. Then all the wierd coaching staff fluctuations with the only real counter being "Darth Hoodie knows what he's doing" and.you get a team that's hard to figure out. On a lighter note, if you combined the projected 10th and 11th teams, you have a team that would put a mincin on anyone. 2. Yes, they are getting injured players back, but stillI'd say the Ravens are maybe the #2 team in their own division. After two years being batted away by the Patriots, the Colts finally looked like the team of destiny. I remember in 2005, the Colts finally splurged in free agency to bring in Corey Simon. Its not devoid of talent. football outsiders 2021 projections Spanish Food Catering Tampa , Popular Pizza Seekonk Menu , Every Plate Meal Delivery , Grouse Hunting Alaska , Calvi Class Submarine , Greek Goddess Makeup Look , Effects Of Late Delivery In Project Management , Present Tense Endings , 1. And he was a PBer right away, along with some All Pro votes. The difference in actual DVOA is marginal -- I certainly wouldn't say the offense carried them to victories -- but I do think it's fair to say that last year's defense was every bit as bad as the offense.. The semifinals are set! The talent on the offense is ok; but a run heavy team is never an offense you want to bet on. 2. The only part of that defense that is obviously worse is at safety with Ward out 4 games and Hufanga replacing Tartt. I think this year will be a nice test for the coaching staff. Meanwhile, the rest of the AFC East comes in under .500, although this initial Dolphins projection seems a bit over-pessimistic. The Chargers, of course, were the opposite in terms of luck, and they hope a new coaching staff will help prevent so many close losses and blown fourth-quarter leads. Week 13 Staff Picks: Is Chris Olave Best Bet for OROY? Plus they have Terry McLaren. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7-9 (6.9 mean wins; SOS: 16). Football Outsiders has released their early 2016 AFC projections (insider required), and they may have the Ravens finishing in third place, but they do have them returning to the playoffs.. For now. Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. 13. The Bills are projected in the top five for offense, defense, and special teams in these new projections, updated from the season forecasts in Football Outsiders Almanac 2022. Cleveland, 1. 3. Arizona Cardinals: 10-6 (9.7 mean wins; SOS: 24) Hard to think going from Wentz to Matt Ryan is THAT big a downgrade. The Defense finally looked good. Yet still ended up AP OROTY-3. I would have expected subjective projections to account for that, but not DVOA. Kansas City Chiefs: 8-8 (8.1 mean wins; SOS: 4) You will have chances beyond this one. Its just really hard to keep winning when you have a perpetually revolving door at QB, you wasted draft assets in the process of finding that qb, and then you don't have the talent geared towards passing the ball and stopping the pass. 1 plus Jets on the rise, September vs. October performance, and great offensive debacles of DVOA history. 2. Stop by every Thursday throughout the 2022 NFL season to preview weekly matchups, talk prop bets, and more with Aaron and Mike. Washington's third-down defense last year was particularly atrocious and although I'm somewhat worried by the fact that this continued throughout the preseason, it's at least typically an area that would particularly be expected to drive reversion toward the mean. By AGL, the Ravens' injury impacts were 3x worse than the Bengals'. It's the end of a name, not of a concept. Am I wrong to think the gap between best and worst is closer than usual? Now, Arizona is fourth but the other seven out of the top eight schedules in the league belong to AFC teams. ), (Yes, they got steamrolled by the Bills, but they still had a reasonable WDVOA after that.). Minnesota Vikings: 6-10 (6.4 mean wins; SOS: 8). 4. Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. ), then again, we still have Seattle. They had a weird defensive decline at the end of the season without any real explanation like an injury. Kinda curious how you would even make a projection for Watson. Come January, that same Cousins-led offense will probably fall a little short the way it always has, but at least the Vikings will be playing watchable, even exciting, offense again. 14. Miami How does this compare to the rankings projected in the Football Outsiders Almanac 2013? Yet they are projected to fall from 10th to 27th. Raiders? We also might work on improvements to our forecast system, and that would alter our 2017 projections. Nevertheless, there will be some new blood in contention and, in particular, a new city. Chicago Bears: 7-9 (7.0 mean wins; SOS: 13) 2020 fantasy football projections for more than 500 skill position players based on the KUBIAK forecasting system. I know JC Jackson is gone, but such a jump says more than that. The problem isn't just these teams beating up on each other for six games. Creator of DVOA andDYAR "All defense, no offense" describes Washington's performance in 2020 (3rd in defensive DVOA, last in offense), but last season they actually ranked higher in offensive DVOA (21st, -5.3%) than defensive (27th, 5.8%). Outsiders is currently favored at -159 moneyline odds on the OddsJam Perfect Line, which takes odds from the sharpest sportsbook in the world.. Dick Vitale: Remembering Jim Valvano today, this week and every day after, V Week 2022: Donate now to support the V Foundation and fight cancer, NFL Power Rankings: Patriots, Falcons and Packers lead post-free-agency edition, Founder and Editor-in-chief of Footballoutsiders.com. Kansas City essentially projects as the same team as last season but with a much tougher schedule and less good fortune. Miami moves up five spots, Buffalo is back to No. Yes, we have the entire AFC West projected with more mean wins than the entire AFC South, but it is even worse in DVOA. The Dallas Cowboys climb into second place in pre-MNF Week 11 DVOA, the Jets tumble from the top 10, and more. Green Bay Packers: 10-6 (9.8 mean wins; SOS: 12) FEI, used by Football Outsiders, had Alabama fifth. Call 1-800-GAMBLER. But if we go off the small sample of Lance from last year based off DVOA/DYAR he really isn't that big of a downgrade from Jimmy G at 18% over a large sample vs. 20% for Lance over about 3 games of play time. A lot of that with the Ravens is having the No. Our projection system starts with Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings for the past three years, although last year's ratings end up about six times as important as either 2014 or 2015. Now that's not meant to sound facetious. Player Pos Team Opponent Dome Fantasy Points Overall Rank Position Rank Base Points Venue Points Weather Points Opponent Points; Josh Allen: QB: BUF: vs NYJ: 24.2 Gannon was a backup then. Tennessee In reply to +1 Week 14 Staff Picks: Can Anyone in NFC Stop Eagles? With Watson, we project the Browns as a top-five offense. Hilton and Jack Doyle (who did have positive DYAR last year). Per Football Outsiders, the Rams were 19th in total offense and 28th in passing Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). In the book, the Bills led the NFL with 10.2 average wins. Montana missed essentially all of 1991 and 1992. So, whether you agree with their projections or not, the folks at Football Outsiders do put in the work. Football Outsiders ( FO) is a website started in July 2003 which focuses on advanced statistical analysis of the NFL. I'm probably underrating Hurts too, 538 thinks he's league average. Eleven of the 12 teams that would make the playoffs based on mean projections are teams that . The Vikings had a top-10 offense in both 2019 and 2020. 2. Reading the book and seeing who is in the secondary, I cant fathom Pitt ending the season with a top five defense let alone number one. On today's show, the guys will grade both 2022 interim head coaches (Jeff Saturday and Steve Wilks), discuss the Cincinnati Bengals turnaround, the Baltimore Ravens trend of late-game collapse, and our favorite coaching matchups of Week 13.Don't forget to subscribe to our YouTube to see and stay up to date on all of the FO video and stream content! The value of projections is the interesting ones, we don't need DVOA to tell us KC, BUF, GB and TB will be pretty good/. A team that was bad one season is sometimes much better the next season or vice versa. Our full statistical database will be made available with DVOA rankings, grades, and more. . Denver Broncos: 6-10 (6.0 mean wins; SOS: 6). One of those things people will forget about but will blame every incompletion on it, even if it's a drop. Kinda funny that CLE offence projection went down although it makes sense. When someone points out that Minnesota ranks 20th in Football Outsiders' DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), 18th in offensive EPA per drive (per TruMedia) and 17th in defensive EPA per . With bets coming in on the . Oakland When it comes to clubs like the L.A. Rams, a Thursday night date is downright banana balls. In reply to FO has a weird vendetta against Wentz. (Obviously, we're projecting probabilities here rather than a clear dichotomy where certain teams are playoff teams and other teams are not.) Purdue's offensive line is below average, ranking 98th in Football Outsiders' Line Yards metric. The numbers we are presenting here are exactly what the projection system spit out. Losing Scramble and adding DFS stuff is like when Netflix cut a bunch of content and added ads and called it streamlining. (halfway IIRC), In reply to NE had such a wacky by KnotMe. Jets are gunning for the Ravens AGL record this year. Editor-in-Chief The draft is over and free agency is pretty much buttoned up, which means it's time for Football Outsiders to take a first crack at projecting the how the AFC will shake out in 2016. The matchup is difficult, as New England is ranked 3rd in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA. This year, we have two. On the other hand, the 49ers have had seesawing health the last six years or so, and this year is scheduled to be a downside year. Since 2009, only three teams have done the same thing. Tampa Bay Lead editor Aaron Schatz is the creator of FootballOutsiders.com and the proprietary NFL statistics within Football Outsiders Almanac, including DVOA, DYAR, Adjusted Line Yards, and the KUBIAK fantasy football projections. Their likelihood of losing someone significant due to felony went down. The Jets already have very good defensive and special teams projections; the former is based on all the new talent and talent returning from injury (Carl Lawson, Lamarcus Joyner) and is discussed further in. .and the summarizing paragraph, which is damn near perfect, I think. Every team that has ever hired Phillips as a head coach or defensive coordinator saw its defensive DVOA improve, including the Broncos, who went from fourth in the league in 2014 to one of the greatest defenses ever in 2015. In reply to Montana missed essentially by Aaron Brooks G. Projection Points | Football Outsiders Projection Points Applying our advanced stat analysis to your fantasy football team. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/almanac/2022. NFL Week 13 - Welcome to the Football Outsiders Coach Rankings show for NFL Week 13! Those include our staples like DVOA and DYAR, but also have groundbreaking measures such as Adjusted Line Yards. In reply to I'm surprised it's so down by KnotMe. But his first three *starts* back were with a passer rating of 101.9+and remember this was 2010. 23rd since 2017. 1 pick listed below (and listed on the playoff odds report page) do not incorporate traded picks. "Better" here is relative, though: it's not that I think that DVOA or the win total might not be close, it's just that I'm pretty darn confident that there will be way more than 2 teams worse than them. | FO Coach Rankings, Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . 2019 fantasy football projections for more than 500 skill position players based on the KUBIAK forecasting system. We know its a little weird how much our computer projection loves the Vikings after two losing seasons. 14. Our database goes all the way back to 1983, and is available to download for subscribers. Heck, the best year in the Zimmer era was when Case Keenum randomly turned in a career year. It's still going to be Scrambly in tone and concept; itisme running the dang thing, after all. Factors include major offseason personnel changes, coaching experience, recent draft history, age and combined tenure on the offensive line, and certain players returning from injury (or, in the case of these updates, certain players getting injured in the preseason). Here's what the 2017 AFC playoff picture would look like according to our early projections. I feel like after several years of punching above their weight, the ground may finally fall out from underneath; which is sad because in spite of my bemoaning, I think the coaching staff has done quite well all things considered. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent. by dmb. 15. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. Regarding the entire division: even though the mean projection has the division taking up spots 13-16 in the AFC, the reality is that it is very unlikely that the season will end that way. I'm sorry, but yeah, we're not going to be able to do the Loser League this year. We also list strength of schedule based on average projected DVOA of next season's 16 opponents, ranked from the hardest (Dallas is No. The top and bottom of this division are easier to forecast than the middle. September 10, 2021 7:15 am ET. We know you are here for the FREE analytics, not the ads. Minnesota Overall I do tend to agree with you that it seems reasonably likely for them to end up very close to their projected DVOA / wins. Dallas is a total wild card. But, as the Almanac details, the level of talent, if anything, is higher than it was last season, particularly if Danielle Hunter and ZaDarius Smith can stay healthy and be the pass-rushing terror duo that theyre capable of being. ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). The Eagles are our new No. Brown; the defense added a pair of exciting rookies in Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean, plus quality veterans in Haason Reddick and James Bradberry; and they have the easiest projected schedule in the league. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Buffalo Bills Clear Favorites in 2022 DVOA Projections, Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . Baltimore Ravens: 8-8 (7.8 mean wins; SOS: 19) I mean, New England's defense is pretty much like all turnovers, and losing the guy who had the most on the team for the past two years you might expect it to have an outsized effect. For this question, Derrik passed the baton to Aaron Schatz (who you can find on the Twitters @FO_ASchatz), who is the man that handles the projections for Football Outsiders and is the Editor-in-Chief of the site. Like Cleveland, there's a good chance San Francisco will improve over last season but very little chance the 49ers will improve to 8-8 or better. Pittsburgh might have the best running back and the best wide receiver in the league, and we can expect some rebound from Ben Roethlisberger after an inconsistent 2016 season. So I was catching up on some old blog-reading and came across this excellent post by Brian Burke, Pre-Season Predictions Are Still Worthless, showing that the Football Outsiders pre-season predictions are about as accurate as picking 8-8 for every team would be, and that a simple regression based on one variable 6 wins plus 1/4 of the previous season's wins is significantly more accurate And similarly, the defense lacks the premium pass rusher or ace corner. But it also has 0 room to survive injuries and the roster state is such that its hard to envision a huge upside the way you kind of can with Jacksonville. We end up with Dallas repeating as the most likely scenario, although our projections might underrate the importance of its defensive losses, because there could be a compound effect from losing so many players at the same position (defensive back). I think the offense will certainly have a much different look with Kevin OConnell at the switch than weve seen over the past few years, thats for sure. Preseason football, but real football nonetheless. The 2008 NFC West would have pulled that stunt off, if it wasn't for those meddling kids, the 0-16 Detroit Lions. The same goes for the Giants' defense; but their offense should improve with the addition of Brandon Marshall. PHI is probably the most interesting, LAC over KC. That said, when a team looks to be improved at edge rusher, safety, cornerback, and perhaps linebacker, at least stylistically, then its not a stretch to see how the influx of talent outweighs the expected growing pains of a new coaching staff. Yes, definitely closer than usual. What I meant was that they werebuiltas all defense, no offense, and while you can't expect things to revert back to '20 even with Young returning because of the whole defensive regression thing (super defenses aren't real, and it's not like Young was having a great year anyway), ending up as the worst offense in the league in '20 took them thinking one-legged Alex Smith was a good option. Offensive projections also incorporate a separate projection for the starting quarterback done independent of the team. NFL odds, picks and predictions for New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Jacobs is fighting through injury, and playing on a . Dallas When Aaron Rodgers is on his game, the recipe for the Packers is simple: good team if the defense is bad, great team if the defense is good. The Titans ranked 15th in our DVOA ratings last season, best in the AFC South, and they've made some strong free-agent additions on defense. I actually played LL before taking up any other FF, and I quit FF a few years back, but still enjoyed LL tremendously. I like the offense in general. Our system may expect ZaDarius Smith and a healthy Danielle Hunter to be bigger additions than they really will be. It may seem like our simulation predicts half the league to be near .500, but we know that won't happen. This year, we are projecting five new playoff teams: Baltimore, Indianapolis, and the Los Angeles Chargers in the AFC, Minnesota and New Orleans in the NFC. Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. In reply to The obvious one to question by serutan. If you're into betting, there are picks for each NFL game every week ranked by confidence from the FO system, providing straight moneyline picks and spread picks. 3) The short answer is: the Eagles added the NFL's best YAC receiver over the last few years in A.J. AFC South's 2nd best DVOA team, and that only by tenths of a win point, is getting the best odds on the whole NFL division-winning board! New Orleans got rid of its best wide receiver in Brandin Cooks. Yes, these are the projections that feed into DAVE for the first few months of the season projections now feed into DAVE for longer than you think, something like 12 weeks. Obviously, the NFL is going to have teams that are 11-6 or better, and it is going to have teams that are 6-11 or worse. Ten Hag: The 'tactically brilliant' coach who became a winner at Ajax. Carolina Panthers: 9-7 (9.3 mean wins; SOS: 31) But I guess you take away Landry from a defense that was bad a year ago + now you've lost AJ Brown and I suppose maybe its true. A short week can leave even the best teams in chaos. Big wins over NFC rivals move Dallas and San Francisco up our DVOA table. Also we seem to sleeping on the Dre Greenlaw return. I know, it looks very strange for us to have no team projected with 11 wins. Last year's Ravens were the most-injured team by Adjusted Games Lost that FO has tracked, going back to 2001. So has Jacksonville, and the Jaguars project to have a top-10 defense, but there's no reason to expect the offense to get any better. The Dolphins' 10-6 record last season was built on an easy schedule, but Miami wasn't a bad team that lucked into a playoff spot, just an average one. Seattle Seahawks: 11-5 (11.2 mean wins; SOS: 21) On offense, a lot of the issue is just the likelihood of rebounding to prior performance. For those new to our website, you can find an explanation of DVOA here. For if gaining Wilson is not seen as an upgrade, then why is losing him such a catastrophic loss? Jeff Risdon. They have been top 10 for 3 straight years with terrible injury luck and a change in DC. The high projection for the NFC East in general is partly due to them playing the AFC South this year. Watson will play six games this year and Cleveland's offensive DVOA projection is 11% higher with Watson at quarterback than Jacoby Brissett. 4. Plus, a look at schedule strength so far and remaining. Then again, I wouldn't want to bet against them, in part because it might make Chris Harris Jr. angry on Twitter. Per Football Outsiders, the Cowboys have the second-most estimated wins in the NFL, at 10.2. The Rams . A defense that rebounds, especially under the coaching of Ron Rivera, Plus an upgrade at quarterback should keep them in the feisty category. Our NFL predictions call for changes in the final rankings over the next few weeks. That being said, last season's Cardinals were not a bad team, just an average one held back in part by a terrible special-teams performance that is unlikely to be repeated. Unlikely (I think it would take some Philly injuries), but not stunning. The Ravens' season-long DVOA was-2.7% (19th), while the Bengals' was -0.1% (17th). And since the Football Outsiders database now goes back to 1989, I thought it would be worthwhile to test the predictive power of Football Outsiders' ratings. But its just so meh at everything but guard. So I don't mind saying that our projection system seems far too optimistic about a rebound performance from the 38-year-old Carson Palmer. "Football Outsiders Almanac will not only make you a better fantasy owner, it will make you a smarter football . 5. Will Georgia's Balanced Attack Win Another Championship? Outsiders: Early 2016 NFC projections 3. Or maybe I don't understand how the projections work DVOA. Some of it is having a new quarterback. Tiny nitpick: I'm not sure it's fair to suggest Rivera really thought a one-legged Smith was agoodoption, since he was their third option after an ineffective Dwayne Haskins and an IR-ed Brandon Allen. including picks and predictions . Use promo code, The Wild World of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings, Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush, Bengals Climb Past Dolphins with Titans Win, Week 12 DVOA Preview: the Dolphins-Ravens Paradox, Cowboys, 49ers Climb in DVOA with Big Wins, Week 11 DVOA Preview: Cowboys Top the NFC, Week 10 DVOA Preview: Buffalo Bills Back to No. Our questions for this year went to Derrik Klassen, who you can find on the Twitter machine @QBKlass. Includes comprehensive coverage of all 32 NFL teams, analysis of offseason personnel changes, over 500 KUBIAK fantasy football projections, and breakdowns of every team from the six BCS conferences plus the top independent and mid-major college football teams. NFL betting best bet and game analysis. Includes comprehensive coverage of all 32 NFL teams, analysis of offseason personnel changes, over 500 KUBIAK fantasy football projections, and breakdowns of every team from the five major college football conferences plus the top independent and mid-major college teams. Ill present a couple of paragraphs from the Vikings chapter of the almanac, one for the offense and one for the defense. 4. 3. There's no particular reason for it. Although that bring up the Raiderswe're projecting McDaniels to begood? And, again, if you want to get your own copy of the Football Outsiders Almanac for 2022, you can grab them at the links up in the first paragraph. Really sad to hear that by fynsta. In reply to I remember in 2005, the by theslothook. 2) Bryan Knowles and Cale Clinton broke down the Eagles in their over/under picks a few weeks ago. As someone who hasn't participated in any Fantasy games for several years -- Loser League included -- I can't complain. England exit another World Cup with same question: Who's the orchestrator? Los Angeles Rams Should they be as hyped as much as they are? USC quarterback Williams wins Heisman Trophy, Sources: Senga, Mets agree on 5-year, $75M deal, Blachowicz, Ankalaev leave title vacant in draw, Warriors relish 'important win' vs. NBA-best Celts, England's Kane: 'Have to live' with missed pen, Crawford stops Avanesyan with big right in sixth, Sources: Saints, coaches, player fined $500K+, Coach Prime lands 1st ESPN 300 recruit for Buffs, UFC 282 takeaways: Blachowicz-Ankalaev leaves 205-pound title picture in a lurch, Caleb Williams' Heisman victory sparks reactions across Twitter, Raul Rosas Jr. becomes youngest UFC fighter to win in their debut, What to know for NFL Week 14: Score picks, bold predictions, fantasy tips, key stats for every game. The site is run by a staff of regular writers, who produce a series of weekly columns using both the site's in-house statistics and their personal analyses of NFL games. Week 13 Staff Picks: Is Chris Olave Best Bet for OROY? They only got to three conference games. Atlanta Falcons: 9-7 (8.6 mean wins; SOS: 17) 6. by BigRichie. are clearly very hard to predict. that projection looks very negative but actually they are 8th best team in NFC! And we'll hit all of the usual yearly Scramble topics, just a day later and with one guy yelling at himself rather than two guys yelling at each other. Buffalo still #1 despite losing Punt Rapist. People who know me know how much I believe in the magic coming out of Baltimore. 5y Aaron Schatz. Losing Eberflus could be a huge; especially since they went with Gus Bradley at defensive coordinator. That didnt make any sense, but it did feel fitting for the Vikings, as would an oddly successful season following the firing of franchise staples such as Spielman and Zimmer. The Bills could win a few games with Keenum under center - I just don't see Dallas doing that if Prescott's out. Use promo code, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Eagles, Giants Fight for Playoffs, Khalil Mack Key to Chargers' Chances Against Dolphins, Jason Kelce's All-Time Block Leads Eagles Over Titans. For a team that went 8-9 in 2021 and played in a. I know that Wentz's reputation is in the toilet, But his season-long metrics were far better than heineke's and much better than his current reputation suggests. Detroit Lions: 7-9 (7.4 mean wins; SOS: 9) Detroit Lions Receivers Key to Daily Fantasy. That doesn't explain the Giantswell, I guess Giants and Titans are basicly the same thing. 3. 2. Dallas Cowboys. All I can think of for the drop is they think Tartt, Jones, Verret, and K'wuan at slot have given way to large downgrades. They lose a bunch of guys or something? Brian Fremeau of Football Outsiders posted his projections on ESPN Insider at the end of Travis Haney's article the other day. I expect to read something about them in tomorrow's article. I by KnotMe. As we say every year: "A few of them will look strange to you. Oakland Raiders: 9-7 (9.0 mean wins; SOS: 15) 2022 fantasy football projections for more than 500 skill position players based on the KUBIAK forecasting system. 1. This is a smaller simulation which only uses one set of mean projected DVOA ratings, rather than using 1,000 different sets of ratings to represent that some teams have a wider range of probable performance quality than others. 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